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Abstract AI-based algorithms are emerging in many meteorological applications that produce imagery as output, including for global weather forecasting models. However, the imagery produced by AI algorithms, especially by convolutional neural networks (CNNs), is often described as too blurry to look realistic, partly because CNNs tend to represent uncertainty as blurriness. This blurriness can be undesirable since it might obscure important meteorological features. More complex AI models, such as Generative AI models, produce images that appear to be sharper. However, improved sharpness may come at the expense of a decline in other performance criteria, such as standard forecast verification metrics. To navigate any trade-off between sharpness and other performance metrics it is important to quantitatively assess those other metrics along with sharpness. While there is a rich set of forecast verification metrics available for meteorological images, none of them focus on sharpness. This paper seeks to fill this gap by 1) exploring a variety of sharpness metrics from other fields, 2) evaluating properties of these metrics, 3) proposing the new concept of Gaussian Blur Equivalence as a tool for their uniform interpretation, and 4) demonstrating their use for sample meteorological applications, including a CNN that emulates radar imagery from satellite imagery (GREMLIN) and an AI-based global weather forecasting model (GraphCast). 

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance StatementThis study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking. 

Heuristic algorithms can generalize the design process of stiff and round capsule-like nanostructures made from DNA. 

Selection protocols such as SELEX, where molecules are selected over multiple rounds for their ability to bind to a target of interest, are popular methods for obtaining binders for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. We show that Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), an unsupervised two-layer neural network architecture, can successfully be trained on sequence ensembles from single rounds of SELEX experiments for thrombin aptamers. RBMs assign scores to sequences that can be directly related to their fitnesses estimated through experimental enrichment ratios. Hence, RBMs trained from sequence data at a given round can be used to predict the effects of selection at later rounds. Moreover, the parameters of the trained RBMs are interpretable and identify functional features contributing most to sequence fitness. To exploit the generative capabilities of RBMs, we introduce two different training protocols: one taking into account sequence counts, capable of identifying the few best binders, and another based on unique sequences only, generating more diverse binders. We then use RBMs model to generate novel aptamers with putative disruptive mutations or good binding properties, and validate the generated sequences with gel shift assay experiments. Finally, we compare the RBM’s performance with different supervised learning approaches that include random forests and several deep neural network architectures. 

Abstract Nucleic acid interactions under crowded environments are of great importance for biological processes and nanotechnology. However, the kinetics and thermodynamics of nucleic acid interactions in a crowded environment remain poorly understood. We use a coarse-grained model of DNA to study the kinetics and thermodynamics of DNA duplex and hairpin formation in crowded environments. We find that crowders can increase the melting temperature of both an 8-mer DNA duplex and a hairpin with a stem of 6-nt depending on the excluded volume fraction of crowders in solution and the crowder size. The crowding induced stability originates from the entropic effect caused by the crowding particles in the system. Additionally, we study the hybridization kinetics of DNA duplex formation and the formation of hairpin stems, finding that the reaction rate kon is increased by the crowding effect, while koff is changed only moderately. The increase in kon mostly comes from increasing the probability of reaching a transition state with one base pair formed. A DNA strand displacement reaction in a crowded environment is also studied with the model and we find that rate of toehold association is increased, with possible applications to speeding up strand displacement cascades in nucleic acid nanotechnology.